The COP28 fossil fuels deal and the ‘North Star’ of 1.5°C

The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai ended Wednesday with what many are hailing as a landmark commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, though responses from leaders across the globe stress that not enough has been achieved in order to limit the worst impacts of climate change.

“We have traveled a long road together in a short time,” said Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the COP28 president for the host United Arab Emirates. “We have language on fossil fuel in our final agreement, for the first time ever,” he added, as the plenary session burst into applause.

“Together, we will follow our North Star,” he concluded. “We will follow it from here to Baku to Belem. And together, we will secure the future of this beautiful planet for the many generations to come.”

Yet it was also Al Jaber who sparked COP28 controversy by appearing to question the science behind fossil fuel emissions as he downplayed the need for ambitious phaseout goals. That’s led global leaders to urge greater action and express concern over a deal that, in the end, makes a historic call for a transition away from fossil fuels but falls short of many hopes.

In his statement, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said it would be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5°C, in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement, without phasing out fossil fuels.  The current trajectory, cited by UN climate head Simon Stiell, is just under 3°C.

“To those who opposed a clear reference to a phaseout of fossil fuels in the COP28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable whether they like it or not. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late,” said Guterres.

COP28 achievements include a global agreement to triple renewable energy, and declarations on agriculture, food and health. Oil and gas companies are stepping up for the first time on methane and emissions. Guterres noted that hard-won pledges to the Loss and Damage Fund and other climate finance initiatives remain limited, though new commitments include US$3.5 billion to replenish the Green Climate Fund, and an annual increase of $9 billion from the World Bank for climate projects.

The European Commission said the COP28 deal marks “the beginning of the end of fossil fuels,” while France welcomed “the consensus achieved on the necessary move away from fossil fuels.” But many climate activists, including those from highly vulnerable small island nations, said they were disappointed in a deal that does little in the face of their existential threats.

“After decades of evasion, COP28 finally cast a glaring spotlight on the real culprits of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. A long-overdue direction to move away from coal, oil, and gas has been set,” said Harjeet Singh of Climate Action Network International, based in Germany. “But the resolution is marred by loopholes that offer the fossil fuel industry numerous escape routes, relying on unproven, unsafe technologies.”

Climate champion Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland and head of The Elders, agreed that the deal falls short on fossil fuels and said climate action must not cease because the gavel has come down on COP28.

“If 1.5°C is our ‘North Star’, and science our compass, we must swiftly phase out all fossil fuels to chart a course towards a livable future,” Robinson said. “To fail to keep global warming below 1.5°C has catastrophic implications for the most vulnerable communities and countries.”